Bluffing

I've been known to make big bluffs, and unfortunately, none of them seem to work.

Here's an example from the 2006 PokerStars blogger tournament. There was about 105 players left and I had a really good shot of winning a prize. I believe top 50 or so got some sort of tournament entry, and the final table all got WSOP entries (the winner getting a main event entry while 2-9 got a $1500 event entry).

I thought I could represent a made flush. Why? Who knows. I wasn't going to respect his motherfucking minbet. If he raises preflop, I'm probably gone. If he bets a decent amount on the flop or turn, I'm gone. Once he called on the turn I knew an all-in on the river wouldn't work. But I did it anyway because I needed the pot.

Then there's of course this one, where I again had 75s, this time diamonds.

So fuck that bullshit. Everyone's a hero now. Look at me, I called with K high! Or middle pair! Or whatever. So I have a better idea.

Go nuts with a marginal made hand

Most people will tell you that you should only bet on the river if you can get a worse hand to call or a better hand to fold. Therefore, many experts will tell you to check down your marginal hands, even top pair. Your opponents however will tend to put you on a good hand or a bluff if you bet the river. They will sometimes call with bluff catchers such as middle pair or ace-high.

A good hand to do this with is top pair no kicker. You raise with A2, say in late position and the BB calls (which he would do with a lot of hands). Flop comes A-x-x. You bet a goodly amount and get called. Maybe your opponent has an A with you, maybe he has a draw or is slowplaying two pair or a set. Turn comes a blank. He checks again. Bet it again (sometimes you can check though, and then bet strong on the river, since your opponent is less likely to give you a good hand). When the river comes, all-in. Even sometimes when the draw comes in. You can still get snapped off by middle pair because "it must be a big bluff, no way he bets top pair on that river".

So if you're going to bluff, might as well do it with some kind of hand. I like to call this the "Insurance Bluff". You still may get a better hand to fold (doubtful), but you also have something if you get called. I think it's a good play to make in tournaments. You don't have much time to accumulate chips, and since bluffs never seem to work, might as well push whatever you can get dealt. Obviously loose players would be the best to try this on, cause they're less likely to show up at the end with the hand.

A problem does arise if you get checkraised. You really can't call with your marginal hand, but if you get to the river, a checkraise is unlikely. Most people don't execute the checkraise bluff (I of course, am an exception, though I am probably going to eliminate that from my game) and they'd probably checkraise the turn if they were going to do it, or bet out if they couldn't get the checkraise in on the turn.

Can't wait until I get back in there. I really want to play a few satellites and try this stuff out. I might lose, but it'll be a learning experience at least. Few more days at the maximum hopefully.

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