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Haven't been around for awhile, and haven't been able to play any poker in the last week. Came down with the stomach flu on Wednesday which caused me to be sidelined for Thurs and Friday and spent the weekend getting a few hours of work in and recuperating. I'm all better now so I hope to get some hands in this week. I've been mostly browsing the 2+2 forums, and man, I really think I can beat the higher stakes ($5/$10 NL). There's one hand I read that was quite interesting. I made an observation to myself before I read the replies which nobody in the thread thought about. Here it is:
Basically we want to think about hero's image here. There's two key questions to ask
1) Does villain believe that hero would bet into 3 opponents on the flop without an A?
2) Does villain believe he can push hero off one pair with a flop shove?
Those questions to me are the most important to ask, and nobody brought them up. I would believe that at this level the players at least think. So even if hero thinks villain is a donkey, he is likely doing some analysis. So it comes down to a few factors. Villain is facing a flop bet from hero, who is representing an A with a good kicker (either AK or AQ). If villain believes hero, he'll shove with a hand that will beat top pair. If he doesn't, he might make a play with garbage and take the pot away from hero, representing a good ace himself.
The other question is, if villain does believe that hero has AK or AQ, could he try to take it away from him anyway? If hero is the type of player (in villain's mind anyway) that will fold top pair because he would be worried about a big hand, villain could still make a play at the pot and represent 99 or 33 (or A9 or A3).
Of course, we can't ignore that there's still two players to act, which makes it more dangerous to bluff. But if villain thinks those guys would fold anything but 99 and 33 after facing a bet and an all-in raise, he might still make a play. I think answering the two questions above makes the decision much easier though. If hero had thought about his own image, I think he would've made the correct laydown and saved himself some money.
Maybe not all the hands at this level are so clear cut (to me anyway), which is why I'm not rushing to max out all of my credit cards to get into these games. Well, back to NL $25 I guess.
Basically we want to think about hero's image here. There's two key questions to ask
1) Does villain believe that hero would bet into 3 opponents on the flop without an A?
2) Does villain believe he can push hero off one pair with a flop shove?
Those questions to me are the most important to ask, and nobody brought them up. I would believe that at this level the players at least think. So even if hero thinks villain is a donkey, he is likely doing some analysis. So it comes down to a few factors. Villain is facing a flop bet from hero, who is representing an A with a good kicker (either AK or AQ). If villain believes hero, he'll shove with a hand that will beat top pair. If he doesn't, he might make a play with garbage and take the pot away from hero, representing a good ace himself.
The other question is, if villain does believe that hero has AK or AQ, could he try to take it away from him anyway? If hero is the type of player (in villain's mind anyway) that will fold top pair because he would be worried about a big hand, villain could still make a play at the pot and represent 99 or 33 (or A9 or A3).
Of course, we can't ignore that there's still two players to act, which makes it more dangerous to bluff. But if villain thinks those guys would fold anything but 99 and 33 after facing a bet and an all-in raise, he might still make a play. I think answering the two questions above makes the decision much easier though. If hero had thought about his own image, I think he would've made the correct laydown and saved himself some money.
Maybe not all the hands at this level are so clear cut (to me anyway), which is why I'm not rushing to max out all of my credit cards to get into these games. Well, back to NL $25 I guess.
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