Interesting Hand on HSP

If you didn't see it, take a couple of minutes and watch.



Here's my comments:
With 300/600 blinds and a 100 ante, Mike Matusow picks up KK UTG and raises to 1800. Everyone folds to Hellmuth in the BB who takes a second and reraises to 7000 with the 72. At the beginning of the game everyone at the table agreed to pay $500 each to anyone who won a hand with the mystical seven-deuce. It's $3500 total, not a lot of money (to these players) so the bragging rights are more important. Hellmuth knows even UTG Matusow might raise some weakish hands, so he's looking to take it down now if he can.

Anyway, Matusow seems to think Hellmuth could be very strong here. He seemed to give off some kind of reaction, but he also made a big reraise. Hellmuth hardly ever comes over the top, sometimes he might even smooth call with AA. Matusow elects to just call with the two kings and see what develops on the flop. They're pretty deep (Matusow started with 100k I believe and Hellmuth covers) so calling here is fine. I think Matusow could be putting Hellmuth on AA here, while also considering 72 with a few other possibilities such as QQ or JJ.

The pot was $15,100 and the flop came Q6J. That's a really bad flop for Matusow. Two possible hands for Hellmuth, QQ and JJ, just became sets. AA of course still has him beat. He literally only beats 72 here. Hellmuth checks. Matusow checks right behind him. Another good play for Mike. He knows Hellmuth will check a lot of good hands to him on the flop, so there's no need to bet. It's very possible Phil was planning on checkraising this flop.

The turn comes the harmless 8, not likely to have helped either player. Hellmuth now leads out for $17,000, overbetting the pot slightly. Another unusual play for Phil; he hardly ever bets even close to the pot (a style I have somewhat adopted btw). Matusow just flats. Another fine play. Kaplan thought he should've raised but at this point he just wants to get to showdown, and I don't blame him. This is a situation where exercising pot control is absolutely the way to go. Matusow at this point has to believe Hellmuth is really strong (QQ) or really weak (72). Hellmuth knows Matusow has some kind of hand by calling a big bet, so I gotta think he puts him on a narrow range. Perhaps AA, KK, AQ, QJ, QQ, JJ, 66 (with the higher possibility tilted towards the first 3 hands). I think with these players playing against each other so much, Matusow would call Hellmuth with any hand he would have raised because he has position, and just smooth call with the bigger hands, and I believe Hellmuth would be able to put those hands in his range.

The pot is $49,100 on the river, which is the 6. Kaplan comments that it's a good card for Mike if Phil has QJ because it gives him a higher two pair. However, this is actually a great card for Phil! Think about it. It's now less likely Matusow has 66, because that would give him quads. It's also a great card if Mike does have QJ because his two pair would have been outdrawn, giving Phil more bluffing equity.

After Hellmuth asks Matusow for a count (he has ~$65k left), he bets $40,000, another strong bet of about 4/5 the pot. He knows Matusow could put him on AA/KK and likely fold QJ and AQ to the big bet . If Matusow has AA/KK, Hellmuth's big bet represents having queens full. Of course, Matusow could still have QQ or JJ here, but every other hand he probably folds. Especially given Hellmuth's image of being a smallball player and hardly, if ever, making big, daring bluffs. This is especially important if Matusow thought Hellmuth might have 72 after he called on the turn (which he likely did)

Matusow folds his kings face up and Hellmuth shows the bluff. He knew Hellmuth could have the 72, but he eliminated that possibility at the end when Hellmuth fired the 3rd barrel. Like I said before you analyze and replay the hands and try to put your opponent on a range, but sometimes you have to make your decision based on what your opponent is capable of doing. Matusow really didn't believe that Hellmuth was capable of the big bluff, and frankly, I don't think anyone else at the table was either. I can't fault him at all for folding; Hellmuth just represented the hand perfectly, hats off to him.